Current market valuation indicators are raising alarms, and some prominent investors are predicting a stock market crash. Notably, Michael Burry, known for foreseeing the housing crisis, and billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio have both called for a significant correction.
The CAPE ratio is currently comparable to levels seen before the dot-com crash, while Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric, which compares the total market cap of U.S. stocks to U.S. GDP, is at an all-time high. These factors have contributed to an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market.
In this context, it is wise to heed the advice of Peter Lynch, a highly regarded fund manager. Lynch, who managed Fidelity's Magellan Fund, achieved an impressive 29.2% average annual return during his tenure and was never deterred by bear markets. He famously stated in a 1995 essay, "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Lynch illustrated that if one had invested the same amount annually from 1965 to 1994, the return would have averaged 11%. Even investing at market peaks would yield a slightly lower average return of 10.6%. He concluded that long-term investment is more important than timing, emphasizing the need to remain invested in stocks.
With this perspective in mind, four exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are recommended for dollar-cost averaging, regardless of whether a market correction occurs.
The first choice is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO -0.08%), which offers a diversified portfolio of the largest 500 U.S. stocks and boasts a decade-long average annual total return of 15.7%. This strong performance makes it a vital core holding.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ -0.70%) is another option, particularly for those interested in growth and technology stocks. This ETF tracks the Nasdaq-100 index and has consistently outperformed the S&P 500, achieving an average total return of 21.1% over the past ten years.
For exposure to artificial intelligence, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ -1.00%) is highlighted. This fund invests in companies poised to benefit from AI advancements, including major players like Nvidia and Alphabet, and has recorded an impressive average annual total return of 33.6% over the last three years.
Lastly, the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD +0.64%) is recommended for those looking for value stocks. This ETF focuses on dividend-paying stocks with a yield of 3.4% and has outperformed its category with total returns of 12.8% over the past decade, compared to 11.1% for the average value fund. Year to date, it has risen 31.4%, significantly outperforming the average value fund's 12%, according to Morningstar.
