McDonald's is looking to chicken and beverages as key drivers for its upcoming growth phase, but recent consumer spending data indicates that the fast-food chain is up against strong competition from specialized rivals.

During its investor day in September, McDonald's announced its goal to capture an additional 1.5 percentage points of global market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, identifying these categories as vital for expanding beyond its beef offerings.

CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized the market potential, stating, "Chicken is a $130 billion category. We have about a 20% share of chicken. Beverages is about a $230 billion category. We have a 10% share of beverages," noting that there is more growth potential in these areas compared to the $50 billion global beef market, where McDonald's holds a 40% share.

However, new data suggests that McDonald's may find it challenging to attract spending from customers who are increasingly favoring competitors in the chicken and beverage segments, according to exclusive information from Consumer Edge, which analyzes credit and debit card transactions.

Chick-fil-A emerged as a significant competitor, gaining 0.58 percentage points of limited-service restaurant spending in the third quarter compared to the previous year, making it the top gainer among chains tracked by Consumer Edge.

Additionally, coffee chains are also drawing more spending from McDonald's customers, with drive-thru-only chain 7 Brew adding 0.4 percentage points, while Starbucks, Dutch Bros. Coffee, and Dunkin' were also among the top ten gainers, collectively increasing their spending share by 0.88 percentage points.

While McDonald's continues to be the largest individual chain in overall limited-service restaurant spending, its market share has decreased compared to last year. Restaurant Brands International's Burger King gained 0.24 percentage points, marking the largest increase among burger chains.

"There’s a big battle for a smaller amount of restaurant spend as people become more selective in what they spend," noted Michael Gunther, senior vice president at Consumer Edge.

The data provides limited insight into McDonald's competitive standing in the chicken and beverage markets, as it does not specify what customers are ordering at the counter. Gunther remarked, "If they [McDonald's] are able to attract diners with interesting options, it could work."

Despite facing sluggish sales, McDonald's executives reported signs of improvement toward the end of the third quarter, with U.S. comparable sales being slightly negative in July and August but expected to turn positive in September.

Consumer Edge's data also indicated that McDonald's year-over-year spending share declines were narrowing across all income groups in September. However, Wall Street analysts have expressed skepticism about the speed of the chicken and beverage strategy's impact.

Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo commented after the investor day that U.S. beverage launches had not generated sufficient sales to counteract broader weaknesses, while the rollout of the company's next chicken platform, featuring hand-breaded and grilled chicken items, is further off than anticipated.

"The scale of investment required to deliver [the company's growth plan] McDonald's Next was above our expectations and introduces additional pressure on near-term earnings," Gargiulo stated in his note, maintaining a market perform rating on the stock with a price target of $295. Shares closed at approximately $235 on Friday.